Outlook for 2026: How market players are setting themselves apart in private markets

Three factors will make all the difference for companies in 2026: ongoing operational development, geopolitical resilience and the ability to cope with the new interest rate environment. The strategic use of AI can be a boost to all three factors – but only by scaling up manual work, not by trying to replace it.

AI-driven efficiency: A key competitive advantage
In deal sourcing and due diligence, AI helps to shed light on unclear or confusing data. This is done by reviewing unstructured documents more rapidly, by prioritising red flags and by providing a clear basis for comparing KPIs. This saves time – but more importantly, it reduces “noise” when making decisions. On a portfolio level, continuous AI-driven monitoring tools provide early indications regarding working capital, pricing or churn. This allows operating teams to take more pointed action and to roll out effective measures more broadly.

Geopolitical complexity: A home advantage is a key advantage
Tariffs, supply chains, regulation – all this enhances the value of local networks. Being able to diversify procurement, enforce price adjustments or secure government subsidies will create discernible benefits right away. Europe offers tailwind opportunities, especially in energy, security and digitalisation. Focused implementation based on specific local knowledge nearly always beats a “one-size-fits-all” global approach.

The new interest rate paradigm: More than just higher costs
The new interest rate environment has turned out to be a reality check – more expensive capital enforces investment discipline and requires cash to be generated rather than merely hoping for favourable exit multiples. Managers differentiate themselves by raising operating margins, stabilising organic growth and skilfully timing add-ons rather than just stacking them up. In private debt, the environment opens up opportunities for clean structures – security packages, covenants and amortisation. However, these options are only open to teams with strong processes and an in-depth knowledge of the sector in question.

Conclusion
Companies that use technology as an amplifier, manage geopolitical complexity pragmatically and deliver a strong operational performance will continue to achieve sustainable returns in a more selective market environment. Everything else is still just noise.